An Emergency Evacuation Planning Model for Special Needs Populations Using Public Transit Systems

The need to have evacuation plans in place for ready implementation for special needs populations became evident after catastrophic events such as Hurricane Katrina. For the purpose of this study, special needs populations will include, but are not limited to, people with physical disabilities, older adults, non-English-speaking populations, residents and employees without vehicles, and tourists. The main objective of this study was to evaluate different evacuation procedures for special needs populations from large urban areas using current public transit systems. A microscopic simulation model was constructed to analyze real-life scenarios for evacuation methodologies. A linear programming optimization model was developed to find the optimum locations for evacuation bus stops for the case study area. The results from this study are very interesting and can aid evacuation planners in the future. Introduction In the past decade, large catastrophic events such as terrorist attacks and natural disasters have disrupted regional urban areas and raised awareness of mass evacuJournal of Public Transportation, Vol. 15, No. 2, 2012 46 ation. Advancements in technology are allowing planners to develop more efficient and effective emergency preparedness strategies to protect the general public from danger (Laben 2002). It has become evident that our society faces many dangers, and being prepared for them is one means of defense. Catastrophic events are inevitable and pose great threat to our society. Depending on the size and demographics of the evacuation area and the type of event, evacuation procedures can vary. Through the use of reproducing traffic network behavior, simulation models provide realistic results that aid in effective evacuation planning (Di Gangi et al. 2009; Mastrogiannidou et al. 2009). The threat of man-made or natural disasters disturbing everyday life has created a need for emergency evacuation methodologies to be common knowledge to the public for quick implementation of such procedures (Mannan and Kilpatrick 2000). To be capable of quick response, city officials should have a plan of action already in place to vacate highly-populated urban areas at risk. The type of evacuation methodology executed is also dependent on the location and size of the area being vacated. The population and infrastructure of a city can differ based on the time period and location of its establishment. Urban areas tend to have many residents living very close together with varying demographics. To efficiently evacuate all citizens of an area, particular needs of certain groups of citizens need to be taken into consideration. The issue of evacuating special needs population has become more prevalent with current events such as Hurricane Katrina (Litman 2006). The difficulty in evacuating populations with special needs varies based on the extra assistance needed by those individuals. The aftermath of the terrorist attacks on New York City and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001, demonstrated the importance of evacuation and disaster planning for highly-populated urban areas. Large numbers of citizens are concentrated in these areas, especially during workdays, creating a vulnerable target for terrorists. These areas with high concentrations of population can lead to high casuality rates if they are not evacuated quickly. Road networks become fully saturated in evacuation scenarios due to a large number of vacating vehicles; using public transit is one alternative to improve the level of service during evacuation procedures. Without proper planning, public transit systems can falter in the aid of emergency evacuation (Renne et al. 2008). Bus drivers need to be aware if they are required to provide services during evacuations and, if so, the location of evacuation bus stops and routes.